Higher-order theory of mind is especially useful in unpredictable negotiations

Abstract In social interactions, people often reason about the beliefs, goals and intentions of others. This theory mind allows them to interpret behavior others, predict how they will behave in future. People can also use this ability recursively: higher-order abilities as “he thinks that I don’t know he sent me an anonymous letter”. Previous agent-based modeling research has shown usefulness reasoning be useful across competitive, cooperative, mixed-motive settings. paper, we cast a new light on these results by investigating predictability environment influences effectiveness mind. Our show benefit (higher-order) is strongly dependent environment. We consider simulations repeated one-shot negotiations particular negotiation setting known Colored Trails. When highly predictable, agents obtain little from reasoning. However, if more observable features change over time, without experience difficulties predicting others accurately. turn higher scores dynamic environments. These suggest human-specific for may have evolved allow us survive complex unpredictable